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WorldDeadline 01/02/2028stale

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Probability state

35%
— / 24h
— / 7d
Source probability · Manifold1 sourceConfidence: LowNo cross-source comparison available

Why did this move?

No recent change · No recent change

No meaningful probability change was detected in the selected period.

Limitations

  • Without a meaningful move, omeyr does not invent an explanation.

Held steady over the past 24 hours — no meaningful probability change was detected.

Evidence timeline

No verified catalyst. omeyr does not invent news, filings, or posts.

Related Futures

No curated impact chain for this event yet.

Probability

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Source & Resolution

Primary listing

Manifold
Primary listing
Original source text: By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Deadline 01/02/2028
35%
stale · $5.2K
View on Manifold
Resolution rules

Original source text

No resolution rules attached.

What could change this?

Potential future catalysts — not observed evidence.

  • Official policy or regulatory announcement
  • Primary-source confirmation from involved parties
  • Material data release tied to the resolution criteria

Venue listing: /market/manifold-by-2028-will-there-be-a-visible-bre