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Future Graph

Local relationship explorer. Node status comes from the Event Resolver, not from Future Pulse movers. Edges are curated structural links — omeyr does not auto-generate causation from title similarity.

Future Map

Open graph

One curated structural path; direction does not imply a measured causal magnitude.

  1. Hormuz closureHormuz · Iran
    can increase
  2. Oil > $100Oil · Brent
    can increase
  3. US inflation > 4%Inflation · CPI
    can reduce
  4. Fed cutFederal Reserve · Fed

Registry nodes

    Curated edges

    • US–Iran ceasefire may decrease the probability of Hormuz closure
      Confidence: medium
      Why are these connected?

      A durable US–Iran ceasefire lowers the chance of conflict spillover that closes Hormuz. Curated structural link — not a measured causal coefficient.

    • Israel–Iran ceasefire may decrease the probability of Hormuz closure
      Confidence: low
      Why are these connected?

      An Israel–Iran ceasefire may reduce regional escalation pressure on Hormuz, but the path is less direct than US–Iran de-escalation.

    • Iran military action may increase the probability of Hormuz closure
      Confidence: medium
      Why are these connected?

      Kinetic escalation involving Iran raises disruption risk for Hormuz shipping. Curated structural link.

    • Hormuz closure may increase the probability of Oil > $100
      Confidence: high
      Why are these connected?

      Hormuz disruption historically tightens oil supply and supports higher prices. Curated structural link.

    • Oil > $100 may increase the probability of US inflation > 4%
      Confidence: medium
      Why are these connected?

      Energy spikes feed into measured inflation with a lag. Curated structural link — magnitude uncertain.

    • US inflation > 4% may decrease the probability of Fed cut
      Confidence: medium
      Why are these connected?

      Stickier inflation above target typically delays rate cuts. Curated structural link.

    • September Fed hike is an alternative scenario to Fed cut
      Confidence: high
      Why are these connected?

      A September hike and a cut at the same policy decision are mutually exclusive policy paths. Curated structural link.

    • Iran regime fall has historically or structurally moved with Iran military action
      Confidence: low
      Why are these connected?

      Regime instability and external military action may move together, but neither direction is assumed causal. Curated structural link.

    • OpenAI 2026 IPO filing has historically or structurally moved with Anthropic IPO
      Confidence: low
      Why are these connected?

      Both are frontier-lab liquidity events; shared sector sentiment, not identical outcomes.

    • Taiwan invasion is an alternative scenario to Taiwan blockade
      Confidence: medium
      Why are these connected?

      Blockade and full-scale invasion are related but distinct Taiwan contingency paths — do not consensus-average them.