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Future Graph

Local relationship explorer. Node status comes from the Event Resolver, not from Future Pulse movers. Edges are curated structural links — omeyr does not auto-generate causation from title similarity.

Future Map

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Registry nodes

Curated edges

  • US–Iran ceasefire may decrease the probability of Hormuz closure
    Confidence: medium · Historical
    Why are these connected?

    A durable US–Iran ceasefire lowers the chance of conflict spillover that closes Hormuz. Curated structural link — not a measured causal coefficient.

  • Israel–Iran ceasefire may decrease the probability of Hormuz closure
    Confidence: low · Live probability
    Why are these connected?

    An Israel–Iran ceasefire may reduce regional escalation pressure on Hormuz, but the path is less direct than US–Iran de-escalation.

  • Iran military action may increase the probability of Hormuz closure
    Confidence: medium · Live probability
    Why are these connected?

    Kinetic escalation involving Iran raises disruption risk for Hormuz shipping. Curated structural link.

  • Hormuz closure may increase the probability of Oil > $100
    Confidence: high · Knowledge only
    Why are these connected?

    Hormuz disruption historically tightens oil supply and supports higher prices. Curated structural link.

  • Oil > $100 may increase the probability of US inflation > 4%
    Confidence: medium · Knowledge only
    Why are these connected?

    Energy spikes feed into measured inflation with a lag. Curated structural link — magnitude uncertain.

  • US inflation > 4% may decrease the probability of Fed cut
    Confidence: medium · Knowledge only
    Why are these connected?

    Stickier inflation above target typically delays rate cuts. Curated structural link.

  • OpenAI IPO has historically or structurally moved with Anthropic IPO
    Confidence: low · Live probability
    Why are these connected?

    Both are frontier-lab liquidity events; shared sector sentiment, not identical outcomes.

  • Taiwan invasion is an alternative scenario to Taiwan blockade
    Confidence: medium · Live probability
    Why are these connected?

    Blockade and full-scale invasion are related but distinct Taiwan contingency paths — do not consensus-average them.