WorldDeadline 01/01/2027recent

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.

Probability state

17%
+1 pts / 24h
+3.5 pts / 7d
Source probability · Polymarket1 sourceConfidence: LowNo cross-source comparison available

Why did this move?

Market signal only · Market signal only

No verified catalyst identified. The probability changed in the market, but Omeyr has not verified the cause.

Observed market facts

  • Observed probability increase of about 1 pts in the selected window.
  • The market is relatively liquid.

Limitations

  • Liquidity alone is not evidence of unusual trading during the move.
  • Do not treat market activity as news attribution.

The probability increased by about 1 pts over the past 24 hours. This is an observed market fact — not a news attribution.

Evidence timeline

No verified catalyst. omeyr does not invent news, filings, or posts.

No curated impact chain for this event yet.

Probability

Loading…

Source & Resolution

Primary listing

Polymarket
Primary listing
Original source text: Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Deadline 01/01/2027
17%
recent · $290.3K
View on Polymarket
Resolution rules

Original source text

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.

What could change this?

Potential future catalysts — not observed evidence.

  • Official policy or regulatory announcement
  • Primary-source confirmation from involved parties
  • Material data release tied to the resolution criteria

Venue listing: /market/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026