EconomicsDeadline 02/28/2035stale
GDP growth in 2034?
If the United States real GDP growth in 2034 is above 6.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probability state
4%
-8 pts / 24h
— / 7d
Source probability · Kalshi1 sourceConfidence: LowNo cross-source comparison available
Why did this move?
No verified catalyst identified · No verified catalyst identified
No verified catalyst identified. The probability changed in the market, but Omeyr has not verified the cause.
Observed market facts
- Observed probability decrease of about 8 pts in the selected window.
Limitations
- Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence — the pipeline may simply lack coverage.
The probability decreased by about 8 pts over the past 24 hours. This is an observed market fact — not a news attribution.
Evidence timeline
No verified catalyst. omeyr does not invent news, filings, or posts.
Related Futures
No curated impact chain for this event yet.
Probability
Loading…
Source & Resolution
Primary listing
Kalshi
Primary listing
Original source text: GDP growth in 2034?
Deadline 02/28/2035
Resolution rules
Original source text
If the United States real GDP growth in 2034 is above 6.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
What could change this?
Potential future catalysts — not observed evidence.
- Official policy or regulatory announcement
- Primary-source confirmation from involved parties
- Material data release tied to the resolution criteria
Venue listing: /market/kxgdpyear-34-t6.0