WorldDeadline 10/01/2026recent

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Probability state

56%
-17.5 pts / 24h
+47.5 pts / 7d
Source probability · Polymarket1 sourceConfidence: LowNo cross-source comparison available

Why did this move?

Market signal only · Market signal only

No verified catalyst identified. The probability changed in the market, but Omeyr has not verified the cause.

Observed market facts

  • Observed probability decrease of about 17.5 pts in the selected window.
  • Reported 24-hour volume about $250,748.

Limitations

  • High absolute volume is not classified as unusual without a historical baseline.
  • Do not treat market activity as news attribution.

The probability decreased by about 17.5 pts over the past 24 hours. This is an observed market fact — not a news attribution.

Evidence timeline

No verified catalyst. omeyr does not invent news, filings, or posts.

No curated impact chain for this event yet.

Probability

Loading…

Source & Resolution

Primary listing

Polymarket
Primary listing
Original source text: Israel closes its airspace by September 30?
Deadline 10/01/2026
56%
recent · $46.0K
View on Polymarket
Resolution rules

Original source text

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

What could change this?

Potential future catalysts — not observed evidence.

  • Official policy or regulatory announcement
  • Primary-source confirmation from involved parties
  • Material data release tied to the resolution criteria

Venue listing: /market/israel-closes-its-airspace-by-september-30