TechnologyDeadline 12/31/2026stale
OpenAI IPO
OpenAI completes an IPO / public listing before 2028.
OpenAIIPO
Probability state
10%
— / 24h
— / 7d
Source probability · Manifold1 sourceConfidence: LowNo cross-source comparison available
Why did this move?
No verified catalyst identified · No verified catalyst identified
No verified catalyst identified. The probability changed in the market, but Omeyr has not verified the cause.
Observed market facts
- Observed probability increase of about 0.4 pts in the selected window.
Limitations
- Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence — the pipeline may simply lack coverage.
The probability increased by about 0.4 pts over the past 24 hours. This is an observed market fact — not a news attribution.
Evidence timeline
No verified catalyst. omeyr does not invent news, filings, or posts.
Related Futures
Downstream effects
- has historically or structurally moved with Anthropic IPO
Why are these connected?
Both are frontier-lab liquidity events; shared sector sentiment, not identical outcomes.
Probability
Source & Resolution
Primary listing
Manifold
Primary listing
Original source text: [ACX 2026] Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026?
Deadline 12/31/2026
Resolution rules
Original source text
No resolution rules attached.
What could change this?
Potential future catalysts — not observed evidence.
- Formal regulatory filing
- Company restructuring announcement
- New financing round
- Governance change
- Public denial from company leadership
Venue listing: /market/manifold-acx-2026-will-openai-file-for-an-ip
asOf 2026-09-07T18:27:05Z · resolver v4