ElectionsDeadline 01/01/2070live
Who will the next Pope be? — Luis Antonio Tagle
If Luis Antonio Tagle becomes the first person elected Pope before Jan 1, 2070, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probability state
12%
0 pts / 24h
— / 7d
Source probability · Kalshi1 sourceConfidence: LowNo cross-source comparison available
Why did this move?
No recent change · No recent change
No meaningful probability change was detected in the selected period.
Limitations
- Without a meaningful move, omeyr does not invent an explanation.
Held steady over the past 24 hours — no meaningful probability change was detected.
Evidence timeline
No verified catalyst. omeyr does not invent news, filings, or posts.
Related Futures
No curated impact chain for this event yet.
Probability
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Source & Resolution
Primary listing
Kalshi
Primary listing
Original source text: Who will the next Pope be? — Luis Antonio Tagle
Deadline 01/01/2070
Resolution rules
Original source text
If Luis Antonio Tagle becomes the first person elected Pope before Jan 1, 2070, then the market resolves to Yes.
What could change this?
Potential future catalysts — not observed evidence.
- Official policy or regulatory announcement
- Primary-source confirmation from involved parties
- Material data release tied to the resolution criteria
Venue listing: /market/kxnewpope-70-lant