Science and TechnologyDeadline 01/01/2050stale
Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail? — Before 2050
If a human lands on Mars before California starts its high speed rail service for the public before Jan 1, 2050, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probability state
33%
0 pts / 24h
— / 7d
Source probability · Kalshi1 sourceConfidence: LowNo cross-source comparison available
Why did this move?
No recent change · No recent change
No meaningful probability change was detected in the selected period.
Limitations
- Insufficient market activity history to characterize volume.
- Without a meaningful move, omeyr does not invent an explanation.
Held steady over the past 24 hours — no meaningful probability change was detected.
Evidence timeline
No verified catalyst. omeyr does not invent news, filings, or posts.
Related Futures
No curated impact chain for this event yet.
Probability
Loading…
Source & Resolution
Primary listing
Kalshi
Primary listing
Original source text: Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail? — Before 2050
Deadline 01/01/2050
Resolution rules
Original source text
If a human lands on Mars before California starts its high speed rail service for the public before Jan 1, 2050, then the market resolves to Yes.
What could change this?
Potential future catalysts — not observed evidence.
- Official policy or regulatory announcement
- Primary-source confirmation from involved parties
- Material data release tied to the resolution criteria
Venue listing: /market/kxmarsvrail-50