WorldDeadline 08/20/2040stale
Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?
Probability state
67%
— / 24h
— / 7d
Source probability · Manifold1 sourceConfidence: LowNo cross-source comparison available
Why did this move?
No recent change · No recent change
No meaningful probability change was detected in the selected period.
Observed market facts
- The market is relatively liquid.
Limitations
- Liquidity alone is not evidence of unusual trading during the move.
- Without a meaningful move, omeyr does not invent an explanation.
Held steady over the past 24 hours — no meaningful probability change was detected.
Evidence timeline
No verified catalyst. omeyr does not invent news, filings, or posts.
Related Futures
No curated impact chain for this event yet.
Probability
Loading…
Source & Resolution
Primary listing
Manifold
Primary listing
Original source text: Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?
Deadline 08/20/2040
Resolution rules
Original source text
No resolution rules attached.
What could change this?
Potential future catalysts — not observed evidence.
- Official policy or regulatory announcement
- Primary-source confirmation from involved parties
- Material data release tied to the resolution criteria
Venue listing: /market/manifold-will-agi-come-from-a-company-whos-p