WorldDeadline 07/19/2028stale
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?
Probability state
96%
— / 24h
— / 7d
Source probability · Manifold1 sourceConfidence: LowNo cross-source comparison available
Why did this move?
No recent change · No recent change
No meaningful probability change was detected in the selected period.
Limitations
- Without a meaningful move, omeyr does not invent an explanation.
Held steady over the past 24 hours — no meaningful probability change was detected.
Evidence timeline
No verified catalyst. omeyr does not invent news, filings, or posts.
Related Futures
No curated impact chain for this event yet.
Probability
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Source & Resolution
Primary listing
Manifold
Primary listing
Original source text: Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?
Deadline 07/19/2028
Resolution rules
Original source text
No resolution rules attached.
What could change this?
Potential future catalysts — not observed evidence.
- Official policy or regulatory announcement
- Primary-source confirmation from involved parties
- Material data release tied to the resolution criteria
Venue listing: /market/manifold-will-eliezer-yudkowsky-win-his-1500