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ElectionsDeadline 01/01/2045stale

Will Li Qiang become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?

If Li Qiang is announced as the first new non-interim leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045, then the market resolves to Yes.

Probability state

15%
0 pts / 24h
— / 7d
Source probability · Kalshi1 sourceConfidence: LowNo cross-source comparison available

Why did this move?

No recent change · No recent change

No meaningful probability change was detected in the selected period.

Limitations

  • Insufficient market activity history to characterize volume.
  • Without a meaningful move, omeyr does not invent an explanation.

Held steady over the past 24 hours — no meaningful probability change was detected.

Evidence timeline

No verified catalyst. omeyr does not invent news, filings, or posts.

Related Futures

No curated impact chain for this event yet.

Probability

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Source & Resolution

Primary listing

Kalshi
Primary listing
Original source text: Will Li Qiang become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?
Deadline 01/01/2045
15%
stale · $0.00
View on Kalshi
Resolution rules

Original source text

If Li Qiang is announced as the first new non-interim leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045, then the market resolves to Yes.

What could change this?

Potential future catalysts — not observed evidence.

  • Official policy or regulatory announcement
  • Primary-source confirmation from involved parties
  • Material data release tied to the resolution criteria

Venue listing: /market/kxxisuccessor-45jan01-lqia