FinancialsDeadline 01/01/2040live
Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
If OpenAI confirms an IPO first, before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probability state
7%
+2 pts / 24h
— / 7d
Source probability · Kalshi1 sourceConfidence: LowNo cross-source comparison available
Why did this move?
No verified catalyst identified · No verified catalyst identified
No verified catalyst identified. The probability changed in the market, but Omeyr has not verified the cause.
Observed market facts
- Observed probability increase of about 2 pts in the selected window.
Limitations
- Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence — the pipeline may simply lack coverage.
The probability increased by about 2 pts over the past 24 hours. This is an observed market fact — not a news attribution.
Evidence timeline
No verified catalyst. omeyr does not invent news, filings, or posts.
Related Futures
No curated impact chain for this event yet.
Probability
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Source & Resolution
Primary listing
Kalshi
Primary listing
Original source text: Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
Deadline 01/01/2040
Resolution rules
Original source text
If OpenAI confirms an IPO first, before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.
What could change this?
Potential future catalysts — not observed evidence.
- Official policy or regulatory announcement
- Primary-source confirmation from involved parties
- Material data release tied to the resolution criteria
Venue listing: /market/kxoaianth-40-oai