PoliticsDeadline 01/01/2045stale

Will President of the United States be the first to leave office?

If the individual holding the title of President of the United States at the time of Issuance is the first within G7 leaders to leave their position, then the market resolves to Yes.

Probability state

11%
0 pts / 24h
/ 7d
Source probability · Kalshi1 sourceConfidence: LowNo cross-source comparison available

Why did this move?

No recent change · No recent change

No meaningful probability change was detected in the selected period.

Limitations

  • Without a meaningful move, omeyr does not invent an explanation.

Held steady over the past 24 hours — no meaningful probability change was detected.

Evidence timeline

No verified catalyst. omeyr does not invent news, filings, or posts.

No curated impact chain for this event yet.

Probability

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Source & Resolution

Primary listing

Kalshi
Primary listing
Original source text: Will President of the United States be the first to leave office?
Deadline 01/01/2045
11%
stale · $0.00
View on Kalshi
Resolution rules

Original source text

If the individual holding the title of President of the United States at the time of Issuance is the first within G7 leaders to leave their position, then the market resolves to Yes.

What could change this?

Potential future catalysts — not observed evidence.

  • Official policy or regulatory announcement
  • Primary-source confirmation from involved parties
  • Material data release tied to the resolution criteria

Venue listing: /market/kxg7leaderout-26jul20-djt