WorldDeadline 11/04/2026stale
Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?
Probability state
48%
— / 24h
— / 7d
Source probability · Manifold1 sourceConfidence: LowNo cross-source comparison available
Why did this move?
No recent change · No recent change
No meaningful probability change was detected in the selected period.
Limitations
- Without a meaningful move, omeyr does not invent an explanation.
Held steady over the past 24 hours — no meaningful probability change was detected.
Evidence timeline
No verified catalyst. omeyr does not invent news, filings, or posts.
Related Futures
No curated impact chain for this event yet.
Probability
Loading…
Source & Resolution
Primary listing
Manifold
Primary listing
Original source text: Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?
Deadline 11/04/2026
Resolution rules
Original source text
No resolution rules attached.
What could change this?
Potential future catalysts — not observed evidence.
- Official policy or regulatory announcement
- Primary-source confirmation from involved parties
- Material data release tied to the resolution criteria
Venue listing: /market/manifold-will-the-democrats-win-the-2026-tex