Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?
If there is at least an earthquake of 8.0 magnitude with an epicenter in California or its territorial waters before Dec 31, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probability state
Why did this move?
No recent change · No recent change
No meaningful probability change was detected in the selected period.
Limitations
- Insufficient market activity history to characterize volume.
- Without a meaningful move, omeyr does not invent an explanation.
Held steady over the past 24 hours — no meaningful probability change was detected.
Evidence timeline
No verified catalyst. omeyr does not invent news, filings, or posts.
Related Futures
No curated impact chain for this event yet.
Probability
Source & Resolution
Primary listing
Resolution rules
Original source text
If there is at least an earthquake of 8.0 magnitude with an epicenter in California or its territorial waters before Dec 31, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes.
What could change this?
Potential future catalysts — not observed evidence.
- Official policy or regulatory announcement
- Primary-source confirmation from involved parties
- Material data release tied to the resolution criteria
Venue listing: /market/kxearthquakecalifornia-35