Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?
If there is at least an earthquake of 8.0 magnitude with an epicenter in California or its territorial waters before Dec 31, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probability state
Why did this move?
No verified catalyst identified · No verified catalyst identified
No verified catalyst identified. The probability changed in the market, but Omeyr has not verified the cause.
Observed market facts
- Observed probability decrease of about 1 pts in the selected window.
Limitations
- Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence — the pipeline may simply lack coverage.
The probability decreased by about 1 pts over the past 24 hours. This is an observed market fact — not a news attribution.
Evidence timeline
No verified catalyst. omeyr does not invent news, filings, or posts.
Related Futures
No curated impact chain for this event yet.
Probability
Source & Resolution
Primary listing
Resolution rules
Original source text
If there is at least an earthquake of 8.0 magnitude with an epicenter in California or its territorial waters before Dec 31, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes.
What could change this?
Potential future catalysts — not observed evidence.
- Official policy or regulatory announcement
- Primary-source confirmation from involved parties
- Material data release tied to the resolution criteria
Venue listing: /market/kxearthquakecalifornia-35