Market signal only · Market signal only
No verified catalyst identified. The probability changed in the market, but Omeyr has not verified the cause.
Observed market facts
Limitations
The probability decreased by about 0.8 pts over the past 24 hours. This is an observed market fact — not a news attribution.
No verified catalyst. omeyr does not invent news, filings, or posts.
No curated impact chain for this event yet.
Potential future catalysts — not observed evidence.
Original source text
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.