WorldrecentSingle-source event · not Market consensus

Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

75%

-1.1 pts / 24h

+11.6 pts / 7d

Source probability · Polymarket1 sourceConfidence: LowNo cross-source comparison available

Why did this move?

Market signal only · Market signal only

No verified catalyst identified. The probability changed in the market, but Omeyr has not verified the cause.

Observed market facts

Observed probability decrease of about 1.2 pts in the selected window.
Reported 24-hour volume about $304,060.

Limitations

High absolute volume is not classified as unusual without a historical baseline.
Do not treat market activity as news attribution.

The probability decreased by about 1.2 pts over the past 24 hours. This is an observed market fact — not a news attribution.

Evidence timeline

No verified catalyst. omeyr does not invent news, filings, or posts.

Probability

No curated impact chain for this event yet.

What could change this?

Potential future catalysts — not observed evidence.

Official policy or regulatory announcement
Primary-source confirmation from involved parties
Material data release tied to the resolution criteria

Source & Resolution

Primary listing

Polymarket

Primary listing

Original source text: Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Deadline 10/27/2026

75%

recent · $231.8K

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Resolution rules

Original source text

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

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Probability state

Why did this move?

Evidence timeline

Probability

Related Futures

What could change this?

Related markets

Source & Resolution

Primary listing