Hormuz closure
Closure or severe shipping disruption through the Strait of Hormuz.
No live probability
No live probability source is currently attached. omeyr tracks this node because it is structurally relevant to other futures.
Confidence: Low · Knowledge only
Why did this move?
No recent change · No recent change
No meaningful probability change was detected in the selected period.
Limitations
- Insufficient market activity history to characterize volume.
- Without a meaningful move, omeyr does not invent an explanation.
No live probability is attached to this node right now.
Evidence timeline
No verified catalyst. omeyr does not invent news, filings, or posts.
Related Futures
Upstream drivers
- may decrease the probability of US–Iran ceasefire
Why are these connected?
A durable US–Iran ceasefire lowers the chance of conflict spillover that closes Hormuz. Curated structural link — not a measured causal coefficient.
- may decrease the probability of Israel–Iran ceasefire
Why are these connected?
An Israel–Iran ceasefire may reduce regional escalation pressure on Hormuz, but the path is less direct than US–Iran de-escalation.
- may increase the probability of Iran military action
Why are these connected?
Kinetic escalation involving Iran raises disruption risk for Hormuz shipping. Curated structural link.
Downstream effects
- may increase the probability of Oil > $100
Why are these connected?
Hormuz disruption historically tightens oil supply and supports higher prices. Curated structural link.
What could change this?
Potential future catalysts — not observed evidence.
- Naval blockade confirmation
- Insurance market shutout of the strait
asOf 2026-09-07T18:25:04Z · resolver v4