Entity · geography
Iran
Ceasefire, military action, and Hormuz-linked futures involving Iran.
As of 10/23/2026
How futures are being repriced
Highest live probability: US–Iran ceasefire at 78%.
Largest recent move: US–Iran ceasefire +3.5 pts. No verified catalyst identified. The probability changed in the market, but Omeyr has not verified the cause.
Active futures
- US–Iran ceasefireLive probability · Market signal only78%
- Iran military actionLive probability · No recent change17%
Historical
No historical (expired) futures listed.
Knowledge nodes
- Israel–Iran ceasefireKnowledge only · No verified catalyst—
- Iran ceasefire (unclear)Knowledge only · No verified catalyst—
- Hormuz closureKnowledge only · No verified catalyst—