Entity · geography
Iran
Ceasefire, military action, and Hormuz-linked futures involving Iran.
As of 09/07/2026
How futures are being repriced
Highest live probability: Israel–Iran ceasefire at 87%.
No verified catalyst identified for a recent move — or no meaningful move is available from observations yet.
Active futures
- Israel–Iran ceasefireLive probability · no recent change87%
- Iran military actionLive probability · no recent change11%
Historical
- US–Iran ceasefireHistorical · insufficient data62%
Knowledge nodes
- Iran ceasefire (unclear)Knowledge only · insufficient data—
- Hormuz closureKnowledge only · insufficient data—