GeopoliticsDeadline 01/01/2027stale
Iran military action
Probability state
11%
— / 24h
— / 7d
Source probability · Manifold1 sourceConfidence: LowNo cross-source comparison available
Why did this move?
No recent change · No recent change
No meaningful probability change was detected in the selected period.
Limitations
- Without a meaningful move, omeyr does not invent an explanation.
Held steady over the past 24 hours — no meaningful probability change was detected.
Evidence timeline
No verified catalyst. omeyr does not invent news, filings, or posts.
Related Futures
Downstream effects
- may increase the probability of Hormuz closure
Why are these connected?
Kinetic escalation involving Iran raises disruption risk for Hormuz shipping. Curated structural link.
Probability
Source & Resolution
Primary listing
Manifold
Primary listing
Original source text: Will the US invade Iran before the end of 2026?
Deadline 01/01/2027
Resolution rules
Original source text
No resolution rules attached.
What could change this?
Potential future catalysts — not observed evidence.
- Confirmed kinetic strike attribution
- UN / alliance military authorization
- Rapid diplomatic walk-back
Venue listing: /market/manifold-will-the-us-invade-iran-before-the-zs06u6hptc
asOf 2026-09-07T18:27:05Z · resolver v4