GeopoliticsDeadline 12/31/2026stale
Taiwan blockade
A maritime / air blockade of Taiwan short of full-scale invasion.
Probability state
8%
— / 24h
— / 7d
Source probability · Manifold1 sourceConfidence: LowNo cross-source comparison available
Why did this move?
No recent change · No recent change
No meaningful probability change was detected in the selected period.
Limitations
- Insufficient market activity history to characterize volume.
- Without a meaningful move, omeyr does not invent an explanation.
Held steady over the past 24 hours — no meaningful probability change was detected.
Evidence timeline
No verified catalyst. omeyr does not invent news, filings, or posts.
Related Futures
Upstream drivers
- is an alternative scenario to Taiwan invasion
Why are these connected?
Blockade and full-scale invasion are related but distinct Taiwan contingency paths — do not consensus-average them.
Probability
Source & Resolution
Primary listing
Manifold
Primary listing
Original source text: [ACX 2026] Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026?
Deadline 12/31/2026
Resolution rules
Original source text
No resolution rules attached.
What could change this?
Potential future catalysts — not observed evidence.
- Customs / quarantine drills escalating
- Insurance market reaction
Venue listing: /market/manifold-acx-2026-will-china-attack-or-block
asOf 2026-09-07T18:25:04Z · resolver v4