Entity · geography
China
Cross-strait and regional futures where China is a primary actor.
As of 10/23/2026
How futures are being repriced
Highest live probability: Taiwan invasion at 29%.
No verified catalyst identified for a recent move — or no meaningful move is available from observations yet.
Active futures
- Taiwan invasionLive probability · No recent change29%
- Taiwan blockadeLive probability · No recent change6%
Historical
No historical (expired) futures listed.
Knowledge nodes
No knowledge-only nodes.