GeopoliticsDeadline 01/01/2030stale
Taiwan invasion
A full-scale PLA invasion of Taiwan.
Probability state
28%
— / 24h
— / 7d
Source probability · Manifold1 sourceConfidence: LowNo cross-source comparison available
Why did this move?
No recent change · No recent change
No meaningful probability change was detected in the selected period.
Limitations
- Without a meaningful move, omeyr does not invent an explanation.
Held steady over the past 24 hours — no meaningful probability change was detected.
Evidence timeline
No verified catalyst. omeyr does not invent news, filings, or posts.
Related Futures
Downstream effects
- is an alternative scenario to Taiwan blockade
Why are these connected?
Blockade and full-scale invasion are related but distinct Taiwan contingency paths — do not consensus-average them.
Probability
Source & Resolution
Primary listing
Manifold
Primary listing
Original source text: Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
Deadline 01/01/2030
Resolution rules
Original source text
No resolution rules attached.
What could change this?
Potential future catalysts — not observed evidence.
- PLA mobilization indicators
- US force posture shift
Venue listing: /market/manifold-will-china-launch-a-fullscale-invas
asOf 2026-09-07T18:25:04Z · resolver v4