Climate and WeatherDeadline 01/01/2050stale
When will a supervolcano next erupt? — Before Jan 1, 2050
If a supervolcano erupts before Jan 1, 2050, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probability state
32%
0 pts / 24h
— / 7d
Source probability · Kalshi1 sourceConfidence: LowNo cross-source comparison available
Why did this move?
No recent change · No recent change
No meaningful probability change was detected in the selected period.
Limitations
- Insufficient market activity history to characterize volume.
- Without a meaningful move, omeyr does not invent an explanation.
Held steady over the past 24 hours — no meaningful probability change was detected.
Evidence timeline
No verified catalyst. omeyr does not invent news, filings, or posts.
Related Futures
No curated impact chain for this event yet.
Probability
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Source & Resolution
Primary listing
Kalshi
Primary listing
Original source text: When will a supervolcano next erupt? — Before Jan 1, 2050
Deadline 01/01/2050
Resolution rules
Original source text
If a supervolcano erupts before Jan 1, 2050, then the market resolves to Yes.
What could change this?
Potential future catalysts — not observed evidence.
- Official policy or regulatory announcement
- Primary-source confirmation from involved parties
- Material data release tied to the resolution criteria
Venue listing: /market/kxeruptsuper-0-50jan01