Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?
If the annual global mean surface temperature anomaly has reached or exceeded +2.0°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900 average) in any calendar year before Jan 1, 2050, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probability state
Why did this move?
No verified catalyst identified · No verified catalyst identified
No verified catalyst identified. The probability changed in the market, but Omeyr has not verified the cause.
Observed market facts
- Observed probability increase of about 6 pts in the selected window.
Limitations
- Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence — the pipeline may simply lack coverage.
The probability increased by about 6 pts over the past 24 hours. This is an observed market fact — not a news attribution.
Evidence timeline
No verified catalyst. omeyr does not invent news, filings, or posts.
Related Futures
No curated impact chain for this event yet.
Probability
Source & Resolution
Primary listing
Resolution rules
Original source text
If the annual global mean surface temperature anomaly has reached or exceeded +2.0°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900 average) in any calendar year before Jan 1, 2050, then the market resolves to Yes.
What could change this?
Potential future catalysts — not observed evidence.
- Official policy or regulatory announcement
- Primary-source confirmation from involved parties
- Material data release tied to the resolution criteria
Venue listing: /market/kxwarming-50