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China

Direct topic events first. Upstream drivers are structural — not a substitute for a live China probability.

Taiwan full-scale invasion
28%— / 24h
Geopolitics
stale
What changed
Held steady over the past 24 hours — no meaningful probability change was detected.
Why
No recent changeNo meaningful probability change was detected in the selected period.
Confidence
low · 1 source · Source probability
May affect
Taiwan blockade
8%— / 24h
Geopolitics
stale
What changed
Held steady over the past 24 hours — no meaningful probability change was detected.
Why
No recent changeNo meaningful probability change was detected in the selected period.
Confidence
low · 1 source · Source probability