Middle East

Direct topic events first. Upstream drivers are structural — not a substitute for a live Middle East probability.

61%38% → 61%+23 pts / 24h

Geopolitics

stale

What changed: The probability increased by about 23 pts over the past 24 hours. This is an observed market fact — not a news attribution.
Why: No verified catalyst identifiedNo verified catalyst identified. The probability changed in the market, but Omeyr has not verified the cause.
Confidence: low · 1 source · Source probability

May affect

87%— / 24h

Geopolitics

stale

What changed: Held steady over the past 24 hours — no meaningful probability change was detected.
Why: No recent changeNo meaningful probability change was detected in the selected period.
Confidence: low · 1 source · Source probability

May affect

11%— / 24h

Geopolitics

stale

What changed: Held steady over the past 24 hours — no meaningful probability change was detected.
Why: No recent changeNo meaningful probability change was detected in the selected period.
Confidence: low · 1 source · Source probability

May affect

Knowledge only