Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?
31%Manifold— 24HVol $5.8KLiq $20.0KUpdated 2 hours ago
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
47%Manifold— 24HVol $4.0KLiq $20.9KUpdated 3 hours ago
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
61%Manifold— 24HVol $3.1KLiq $4.4KUpdated 2 hours ago
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
29%Manifold— 24HVol $2.0KLiq $5.2KUpdated 14 hours ago
Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?
4%Manifold— 24HVol $2.0KLiq $10.0KUpdated 6 hours ago
Will WW3 happen before GTA6?
3%Manifold— 24HVol $1.2KLiq $10.0KUpdated 11 hours ago
Will Jamie Joyce win the 2026 12th California Congressional district race?
3%Manifold— 24HVol $810Liq $1.0KUpdated 21 hours ago
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
6%Manifold— 24HVol $420Liq $2.6KUpdated 16 hours ago
Will working be necessary in 2070?
27%Manifold— 24HVol $419Liq $2.2KUpdated 4 hours ago
Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
33%Manifold— 24HVol $362Liq $5.2KUpdated 2 hours ago
In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?
18%Manifold— 24HVol $250Liq $7.2KUpdated 4 hours ago
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?
96%Manifold— 24HVol $235Liq $10.0KUpdated 4 hours ago
Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?
16%Manifold— 24HVol $89.86Liq $1.3KUpdated 2 hours ago
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?
86%Manifold— 24HVol $80.00Liq $1.6KUpdated 3 hours ago
Will we get AGI before 2028?
22%Manifold— 24HVol $66.00Liq $1.1KUpdated 10 hours ago
Will JD Vance be nominated for President for the 2028 US Presidential Election?
46%Manifold— 24HVol $57.37Liq $10.0KUpdated 4 hours ago
Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?
74%Manifold— 24HVol $55.56Liq $12.9KUpdated 16 hours ago
Will there be a serious attempt by the GOP to overturn the election?
34%Manifold— 24HVol $55.00Liq $20.0KUpdated 7 hours ago
Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
8%Manifold— 24HVol $50.00Liq $5.4KUpdated 5 hours ago
This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.
67%Manifold— 24HVol $25.00Liq $2.8KUpdated 14 hours ago
Will Trump finish his second term?
86%Manifold— 24HVol $1.00Liq $100.0KUpdated 14 hours ago
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
21%Manifold— 24HVol $0.00Liq $100.0KUpdated 1 day ago
Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?
68%Manifold— 24HVol $0.00Liq $100.0KUpdated 9 days ago
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
8%Manifold— 24HVol $0.00Liq $20.2KUpdated 5 days ago
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
29%Manifold— 24HVol $0.00Liq $16.0KUpdated 3 days ago
Will building datacenters in the US be much more difficult by mid-2029?
27%Manifold— 24HVol $0.00Liq $15.0KUpdated 5 days ago
Will I get a job through a referral before April 2027?
52%Manifold— 24HVol $0.00Liq $15.0KUpdated 20 days ago
Will Chalco's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?
86%Manifold— 24HVol $0.00Liq $15.0KUpdated 1 month ago
Will Vic NEM 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$105/MWh?
10%Manifold— 24HVol $0.00Liq $15.0KUpdated 20 days ago
Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?
31%Manifold— 24HVol $0.00Liq $14.8KUpdated 7 days ago
Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030?
11%Manifold— 24HVol $0.00Liq $13.3KUpdated 2 days ago
Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?
27%Manifold— 24HVol $0.00Liq $11.5KUpdated 2 months ago
Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?
51%Manifold— 24HVol $0.00Liq $11.0KUpdated 8 days ago
Will Elon Musk get a chip implanted in his brain before he passes away?
37%Manifold— 24HVol $0.00Liq $11.0KUpdated 24 days ago
If I buy physical indium for investment, will I regret it in 5 years from now?
58%Manifold— 24HVol $0.00Liq $11.0KUpdated 2 months ago
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
53%Manifold— 24HVol $0.00Liq $10.1KUpdated 1 month ago
Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?
60%Manifold— 24HVol $0.00Liq $10.0KUpdated 4 months ago
Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?
46%Manifold— 24HVol $0.00Liq $10.0KUpdated 2 days ago
Will a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?
39%Manifold— 24HVol $0.00Liq $10.0KUpdated 5 days ago
In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?
89%Manifold— 24HVol $0.00Liq $7.3KUpdated 16 days ago