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Underlying venue market listings used as evidence for omeyr events. Volume units are never mixed across venues.

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Manifold

Will Trump finish his second term?

84%

Manifold— 24HVol $35.1KLiq $100.0KUpdated 1 hour ago

Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO?

14%

Manifold— 24HVol $18.3KLiq $10.0KUpdated 10 minutes ago

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

27%

Manifold— 24HVol $5.3KLiq $20.9KUpdated 27 minutes ago

Data Explorer

Manifold

Will Trump finish his second term?

Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO?

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Data Explorer

Manifold

Will Trump finish his second term?

Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO?

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Will I get a job through a referral before April 2027?

Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?

Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?

Will JD Vance be nominated for President for the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?

Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

Will Vic NEM 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$105/MWh?

Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Will chess be solved by 2040?

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Will Chalco's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?

Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030?

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?

Will Elon Musk get a chip implanted in his brain before he passes away?

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Will WW3 happen before GTA6?

Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?

Will Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?

In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?