Data Explorer

Underlying venue market listings used as evidence for omeyr events. Volume units are never mixed across venues.

All Polymarket Kalshi Manifold Economics Elections Science and Technology Financials Climate and Weather Politics

Source markets

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

47%

Manifold— 24HVol $2.2KLiq $20.9KUpdated 1 day ago

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

96%

Manifold— 24HVol $2.2KLiq $10.0KUpdated 1 day ago

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?

Manifold— 24HVol $0.00Liq $2.6KUpdated 3 days ago

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100

14%

Manifold— 24HVol $0.00Liq $2.2KUpdated 26 days ago

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

46%

Manifold— 24HVol $1.00Liq $10.0KUpdated 2 days ago

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

94%

Manifold— 24HVol $0.00Liq $5.5KUpdated 4 days ago

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

61%

Manifold— 24HVol $102Liq $4.4KUpdated 22 hours ago

Will chess be solved by 2040?

25%

Manifold— 24HVol $0.00Liq $1.8KUpdated 7 days ago

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

92%

Polymarket— 24HVol $383.2KLiq $3.83MUpdated 21 hours ago

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

67%

Polymarket+3 pts 24HVol $597.1KLiq $2.87MUpdated 21 hours ago

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Polymarket— 24HVol $294.5KLiq $2.68MUpdated 21 hours ago

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

Polymarket0 pts 24HVol $1.39MLiq $2.51MUpdated 21 hours ago

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

26%

Polymarket-2 pts 24HVol $408.4KLiq $1.81MUpdated 21 hours ago

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

22%

Polymarket+1 pts 24HVol $747.1KLiq $499.5KUpdated 21 hours ago

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

79%

Polymarket-1.4 pts 24HVol $623.6KLiq $676.0KUpdated 21 hours ago

Warriors vs. Lakers

31%

Polymarket-2.5 pts 24HVol $921.1KLiq $169.6KUpdated 21 hours ago

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?

94%

Polymarket-1.2 pts 24HVol $880.8KLiq $60.0KUpdated 21 hours ago

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

88%

Polymarket+1 pts 24HVol $495.3KLiq $866.5KUpdated 21 hours ago

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

13%

Polymarket— 24HVol $579.1KLiq $736.4KUpdated 21 hours ago

Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

32%

Polymarket-4.5 pts 24HVol $619.9KLiq $518.4KUpdated 21 hours ago

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

27%

Polymarket-1 pts 24HVol $393.4KLiq $595.1KUpdated 21 hours ago

Spread: Lakers (-6.5)

51%

Polymarket+1.5 pts 24HVol $575.3KLiq $56.6KUpdated 21 hours ago

Spread: Clippers (-4.5)

67%

Polymarket+12.5 pts 24HVol $547.5KLiq $49.6KUpdated 21 hours ago

Spread: Clippers (-5.5)

64%

Polymarket+14.5 pts 24HVol $545.0KLiq $51.3KUpdated 21 hours ago

New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston

88%

Polymarket+31 pts 24HVol $481.3KLiq $102.8KUpdated 21 hours ago

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

69%

Polymarket+4 pts 24HVol $155.9KLiq $453.9KUpdated 21 hours ago

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

75%

Polymarket-6 pts 24HVol $432.7KLiq $107.8KUpdated 21 hours ago

Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?

68%

Polymarket-1 pts 24HVol $212.5KLiq $426.2KUpdated 21 hours ago

Kings vs. Clippers

23%

Polymarket-13 pts 24HVol $382.2KLiq $227.4KUpdated 21 hours ago

Cali: Santiago Rodriguez Taverna vs Gonzalo Bueno

54%

Polymarket+19.5 pts 24HVol $367.0KLiq $10.8KUpdated 21 hours ago

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?

87%

Polymarket-3 pts 24HVol $329.4KLiq $62.7KUpdated 21 hours ago

Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

76%

Polymarket+3.1 pts 24HVol $144.6KLiq $141.0KUpdated 21 hours ago

Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

17%

Polymarket-3 pts 24HVol $134.7KLiq $178.9KUpdated 21 hours ago

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Polymarket-0.1 pts 24HVol $241.0KLiq $139.9KUpdated 21 hours ago

Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-10-21?

37%

Polymarket+5 pts 24HVol $200.5KLiq $151.8KUpdated 21 hours ago

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

82%

Polymarket-5 pts 24HVol $192.6KLiq $66.0KUpdated 21 hours ago

Spread: Trail Blazers (-3.5)

97%

Polymarket+50 pts 24HVol $184.1KLiq $55.8KUpdated 21 hours ago

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?

32%

Polymarket-4 pts 24HVol $174.4KLiq $127.5KUpdated 21 hours ago

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

15%

Polymarket+2 pts 24HVol $163.4KLiq $168.7KUpdated 21 hours ago

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in October?

Polymarket0 pts 24HVol $167.0KLiq $138.1KUpdated 21 hours ago

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?

72%

Polymarket— 24HVol $159.6KLiq $123.8KUpdated 21 hours ago

Spread: Lakers (-7.5)

46%

Polymarket— 24HVol $154.1KLiq $57.0KUpdated 21 hours ago

Suns vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 231.5

22%

Polymarket-30 pts 24HVol $143.3KLiq $51.5KUpdated 21 hours ago

Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?

22%

Polymarket— 24HVol $138.2KLiq $142.1KUpdated 21 hours ago

Will Trump finish his second term?

86%

Manifold— 24HVol $141Liq $100.0KUpdated 2 days ago

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

21%

Manifold— 24HVol $94.69Liq $100.0KUpdated 1 day ago

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

68%

Manifold— 24HVol $0.00Liq $100.0KUpdated 8 days ago

Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030?

11%

Manifold— 24HVol $0.00Liq $13.3KUpdated 2 days ago

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2040?

Manifold— 24HVol $0.00Liq $2.2KUpdated 7 days ago

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

53%

Manifold— 24HVol $0.00Liq $10.1KUpdated 1 month ago

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

29%

Manifold— 24HVol $0.00Liq $5.2KUpdated 4 days ago

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

74%

Manifold— 24HVol $0.00Liq $12.9KUpdated 5 days ago

Data Explorer

Source markets

Will Open AI or Anthropic IPO first?

Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?

Will Elon Musk visit Mars before Aug 1, 2099?

Will Nick Fuentes become President of the United States before 2045?

Will Zohran Mamdani become President of the United States before Jan 22, 2045?

Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?

Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?

When will a supervolcano next erupt? — Before Jan 1, 2050

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Will chess be solved by 2040?

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Warriors vs. Lakers

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Spread: Lakers (-6.5)

Spread: Clippers (-4.5)

Spread: Clippers (-5.5)

New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?

Kings vs. Clippers

Cali: Santiago Rodriguez Taverna vs Gonzalo Bueno

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?

Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-10-21?

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

Spread: Trail Blazers (-3.5)

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in October?

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?

Spread: Lakers (-7.5)

Suns vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 231.5

Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?

Will Trump finish his second term?

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2040?

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Data Explorer

Source markets

Will Open AI or Anthropic IPO first?

Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?

Will Elon Musk visit Mars before Aug 1, 2099?

Will Nick Fuentes become President of the United States before 2045?

Will Zohran Mamdani become President of the United States before Jan 22, 2045?

Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?

Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?

When will a supervolcano next erupt? — Before Jan 1, 2050

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Will chess be solved by 2040?